Cardano (ADA) did not manage to rise much from the June lows, however, the closer the Vasil fork, the faster the uptrend gains momentum. Indicators on the weekly chart are reversed in the bullish direction
The fork is expected to occur on September 22. In anticipation of this event, decentralized applications (dApps), exchanges, and validators are updating systems to maintain compatibility with the mainnet.
The development team released the latest Daedalus mainnet version v.5.0.0 on September 9th. Version 5.0.0 fixes several bugs, including one that causes the system to send the same amount of tokens, even if the user changed it during commission calculation.
Long-term dynamics
There is upside potential on the weekly ADA chart. In particular, the price has been forming a double or triple bottom since June. This pattern is reinforced by a bullish divergence from the RSI on the weekly chart (green line). As a rule, such divergences are harbingers of large-scale bullish movements.
However, the weekly RSI is still below the 50 mark. A move higher would confirm the divergence and trigger a strong upside.
In this case, the nearest resistance is in the $0.85 area. The next resistance is formed by the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement level at $1.43.
ADA Wave Analysis
Cryptocurrency trader @CryptoMichNL has tweeted out the ADA chart stating that the price could rise to $0.55 and even $0.75.
However, wave count casts doubt on this prediction. If we count from the historical maximum, then the price completes the fifth wave within the downward movement.
In this case, it is in the fourth wave, which has taken the form of a symmetrical triangle. The subwave count is shown in white.
If the calculations are correct, the price will break the lower border of the triangle and rush to the nearest support at $0.22. This target coincides with the 1.61 Fibonacci retracement from the top of the triangle.
Given that the indicator values and price dynamics give a conflicting picture, the direction of movement will depend on whether the ADA breaks through the resistance at $0.594 (green line) or falls below $0.427 (red line).